World Cup 2010 Italy Draw Analysis: An Easy Group, But A Hard Draw

Italy have been drawn in Group F alongside Paraguay, New Zealand and Slovakia. Carlo Garganese analyses the group and the possible path through to the final…

When the World Cup rehearsal draw was made earlier today, a colleague remarked that if Italy were again placed with Chile, Serbia and New Zealand later in the real thing he would be satisfied. My reply was that I would be far from content.

The reason being that both Brazil and Spain – the two best teams in the world – were on Italy’s side of the draw and that the Azzurri would have to go past at least one of them before the semi-finals when both halves joined together.

Italy’s ‘real’ group ended up being even weaker as New Zealand remained and Paraguay and Slovakia entered the pool, but disastrously both Brazil and Spain stayed in Italy’s half of the draw. This means that Marcello Lippi’s men will almost certainly have to face one of the two favourites in the quarter finals should they make it that far. Given their current struggles not many people will bet on an Italian victory, even if there are still seven months to go until the World Cup kicks off.

Big improvements needed from Lippi if
Italy are to beat Brazil or Spain

The second side of the draw is undoubtedly not the place to be when you consider the presence also of Portugal, Ivory Coast (both in Group G with Brazil) and the Netherlands.

Holland could be Italy’s opponents in the second round. Assuming the Azzurri finish top of their pool, they will tackle the runners-up of a Group E also containing Denmark, Japan and Cameroon. Even the Italy in its current state has no reason to fear any of this group’s four countries, and indeed I would strongly favour them to progress to the quarter finals.

But then it gets tricky as Brazil or Spain will lie in wait. Should Italy defeat the respective South American and European champions, a semi final against either France, Argentina, England or Germany seems likely.

If Italy advance to the last four, having eliminated Brazil or Spain, they will believe they can retain their World Cup...but that is a big, big IF.